slugz NCAAF pick thread

[slugz67]

Not good enough or experienced enough to post in the main forum. So I'll finish up the football season in this thread.

Nov 5

BC (-4.5) @ UNC
Key - BC rush defense is stout, Baker not able to carry UNC to win.

Minn/Indiana O60
Minn will prob be looking ahead to Mich St, Indiana can put points up on the board.

South Car/Ark O51
McFadden and Rice are studs, neither will be stopped and opportunities will open up for others. ARK finally facing a defense not named UGA-USC-ALA-AUB. Cocks facing a team that gives it up through the air. I see there will be a new Dick for ARK, but can he be any worse than the other Johnson?

Notre Dame (-8.5) vs TENN
Catholics simply playing too well to go against. While I expect a good Tenn showing as they play better on the road than home, they just dont have the offensive firepower to stay close enough.

KAN/NEB U37.5
Kansas defense very tough at home. I see this game a lot like the Kan/OK, KS/MO, or NEB/BAY game. Neither team gets over 17pts.

Va Tech (-6.5) vs Mia-FL
Key matchup - Mia OL outclassed by VT DL. My numbers show VT by 10-14 pts.

PSU (-11) vs Wisc
PSU huge HFA and much better defense. My line is -14.

BOL on all plays
slug

 

[slugz67]

YTD 3-4.

Forget picks, tracking three by-the-numbers systems for remainder of year. No actual plays, trying to find an edge somehow.

SYS-1 TR*
USF (-8.5)
NC St (+4)
Baylor (+8)
CMU (+2.5)
WISC (-2.5)
Colo St (-8)
ECU (+11)
Tulane (+2)
UCF (+7)
Ball St (+6)
Ariz (-13)
USC (-19)
Stanford (+4)
TX Tech (-23)
Ark (+1)
LSU (-3)
Oregon (-4.5)

SYS-2 MM*
Rutgers (+21)
South Fla (-8.5)
aTm (+13)
BC (-4)
Maryland (+2.5)
Ohio St (-15)
Memphis (+19)
WMU (-2.5)
Mich St (+4.5)
SDSU (+8)
Tulane (+2)
Auburn (+3)
FSU (-2)
Nevada (-10)
LA Tech (-12.5)
Ore St (-4)
TX Tech (-23)
Miss (-1)
LSU (-3)

SYS-3 DEF*
Rutgers (+21)
Ohio St (-15)
Baylor (+8)
Nebraska (-6)
Iowa (+2.5)
SDSU (+8)
Tulane (+2)
Auburn (+3)
FSU (-2)
UAB (-7)
LA Tech (-12.5)
EMU (-6)
Ariz (-13)
ASU (+4)
TX Tech (-23)
FLA (-4.5)
Oregon (-4.5)
MTSU (-10)
Troy (+3)
FLA (-4.5)
Oregon (-4.5)

 

[PercocetThreat]

Would you be inclined to play a game which showed up on all three of your systems??

 

[PercocetThreat]

Would you be inclined to play a game which showed up on all three of your systems??

e.g. Texas Tech -23

 

[slugz67]

Perco, at this point these systems are strictly being tested. I'll evaluate the results and see where the systems are working/failing. Last week two systems went 20-11, but I cannot very well play 31 games. It may very well be the case that plays fitting all three systems are definite plays, it makes sense. I've got to be able to filter down plays someway....

I'm just hoping these aren't garbage systems. I need to go back to week 6 and put these systems against results and see if I got something or not.

The whole purpose of this is to try to hit around 60% or so based on limited time to handicap games. We shall see....

 

[PercocetThreat]

I hear ya slugz, good luck.